Ford 400: Stewarts Second Title Would Be Sweet News

Its over.

Greg Biffle punted away his chances at Texas two weeks ago Carl Edwards was never enough of a flattrack guy to stay out in front in Phoenix last week and Jimmie Johnsons car drove worse than Herbie The Love Bug after a harddrinking night with Lindsay Lohan. Granted J.J. did scrap his way up to a seventhplace finish in the desert last week but considering Stewart finished fourth the points title is all but his.

Going to Homestead Florida this weekend the Hirsute Stewart totes a 52point lead over Johnson and an 87point bulge over Edwards. That means if Tony the Tiger finishes ninth or higher on the highbanked 1.5miler this weekend he wins his second Nextel Cup championship. Considering hes got 14 top5 and 19 top10 finishes in his last 21 races that sounds like a pretty darned good bet. Hes riding a string of good luck that would make David Spade envious. Granted he wrecked from the lead in Charlotte a month ago; if that happens to him again on Sunday hell lose the title. Hell certainly have to be careful on restarts and passing lapped traffic (Homestead will definitely have lapped traffic) but just as certainly anyone not in contention for the race lead will give Stewart a wider berth than Star Joness personal assistant. Naturally having watched 36 other events this year in which cars were wrecked or blew up I can definitely envision a circumstance where Stewart flames out and doesnt win the title. I just dont think it will happen.

And that will make me happy. Before the season started I gave you my three favorite bets on drivers to win the 2005 Nextel Cup. My #1 pick was Jeff Gordon at 5:1 so we wont talk about that one. My #2 pick was Johnson also at 5:1. And my #3 pick Mr. Stewart at a tasty 10:1. Heres what I wrote about him way back in February:

Im not a huge fan but this is my most favorite favorite favorite season wager for 05. Smoke really crushes the final 10 tracks. He loves Atlanta (hasnt failed to finish in the top 10 from 20024) Dover (last five races: 6th 2nd 3rd 4th 5th) Charlotte (all top 10s except one wreck) Martinsville (nothing below 15th) and everyone knows he used to own Homestead. As Gibbss most powerful team the Hirsute Stewart (should I call him the Hirstewart) is essentially a lock to make the Chase and from there hes got it in him to catch fire. Whereas the other major contenders are 8:1 or better you can get Smoke for 10. Thats a good deal.

Not bad eh Considering only Stewart and Johnson are likely to win the crown Im in the black on these bets no matter what. But Id certainly like 10:1 more than 5:1 so Im rooting for Tony.

However I dont think hell win this weeks Homestead race. Hes going to be driving conservatively hanging back just making sure hes in the top10 all day. Stewart used to be the king of Miami racing (he won the first two races ever run at this track in 1999 and 2000) but that was before this place was reconfigured. In order to eliminate singlegroove racing which makes for terrible TV viewing Homestead became a hybrid track: highbanked in the turns (20 degrees of banking) but a bit more gradual in the way its straightaways slope in and out of the corners. The race winners here since the Big Change are Bobby Labonte (351) in 2003 and Greg Biffle (61) in a runaway last year. For comparisons sake well look at the highbanked tracks at Dover and Bristol; theyre certainly not parallel driving experiences but being good at those places takes some of the same mechanical thought processes that it takes to be good in Miami.

Last Week: Well it had to end sometime. Unfortunately I got my Busches wrong. Heck unfortunately I wrote my column early enough that I selected Kurt Busch before his little reckless driving charge got him suspended for the rest of 2005. So Kyle Busch won the event late taking down Biffle while my headtohead pick of Dale Earnhardt Jr. over Rusty Wallace similarly crapped out as Junior popped a tire and hit the wall early. Thus ends a pretty great streak: 15 winning weeks in a row. Ah well. The great irony is that the last losing

headtohead bet I made back in midJuly was also on Junior. Serves me right I guess. Anyway going into the seasons final event I lost $2667 (Busch didnt start and therefore is a refund) if youre betting a dime per unit along with me; for the season that puts me at a positive $51734.50.

Take Greg Biffle (61) 1/3rd unit. Biffle has the benefit of being the defending champ in a race where he crushed the field one year ago and also the best Bristol and Dover racer of 2005. He won the first Dover event and might have won the second if not for a flat tire and absolutely would have won the first Bristol event if not for a terrible pit decision to take four tires while everyone else took two. He came back to finish third at the seasons second Bristol event as well. I liked the way he ran at Phoenix last week; he had the best car almost all day but just couldnt quite keep ahead of Kyle Busch (221) when it counted. One has to imagine his team is kicking itself for using an untested shock at Texas which broke down and caused him all manner of woe in the race two weeks ago. If not for that decision the Biff could be in second place pushing Stewart at a track where I put him down as the favorite to win.

Take Jimmie Johnson (51) 1/3rd unit. Johnson has finished second and third in the two highbanked Homestead events and he knows what its like to drive in a futile attempt to capture the series crown. Last season he trailed Kurt Busch posted that secondplace finish and still couldnt win his first points championship. Johnson didnt have the best car during the second Dover race this year but he did stay out on old tires and hold off Kyle Busch and others after Biffle and Kurt Busch had their ontrack troubles. Johnson crashed out of the second Bristol race this year but he posted top10s in the first Bristol and Dover races. Add to this the fact that he boasts the best fouryear average at all the highbanked tracks combined (just ahead of Tony Stewart (71) actually) and youve got yourself a desperate driver who knows what it takes to succeed at hightorque events.

Take Rusty Wallace (221) 1/3rd unit. This isnt just an emeritus bet. I like the odds. The Ford 400 will be Wallaces final event as a fulltime Nextel Cup driver and yes hed be the absolute #1 sentimental favorite if he could somehow win one more race. Normally given the fact that hes in a Dodge and this is an unrestricted intermediate speedway Id give him very little chance. But Wallace has been Biffles equal at Bristol and Dover this year: 5th and 13th at Bristol 3rd and 5th at Dover. In recent years R